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Tropical storm warning issued for parts of the Texas coast as a low pressure system builds up in the Bay of Campeche

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The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing warnings for a low pressure system designated “Potential Tropical Cyclone 1” currently located in the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical Track this week (2024 KPRC2)

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor south to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

Tropical watches (2024 KPRC2)

A tropical storm warning was also issued for the Mexican coast south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan.

Here is the latest information on the system from the National Hurricane Center as of Monday 4:00 p.m.:

LOCATION…20.3N 93.2W

APPROX. 380 MI…615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO

APPROXIMATELY 470 MI…755 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE WIND…40 MPH…65 KM/H

CURRENT MOTION…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES


As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC), the center of the disturbance was located near 20.3 degrees north and 93.2 degrees west. The system is moving toward the north-northwest at about 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn to the west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the system is expected to approach the western Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds will be around 40 mph (65 km/h), with stronger gusts. Slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

* Probability of formation within 48 hours… high… 70 percent.

* Probability of formation within 7 days… high… 70 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, with tropical storm-force winds extending as far as 465 km (290 mi) northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 in).

Dangers for the country

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RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to bring rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches from northeast Mexico to south Texas, with a maximum of 15 inches possible. These rainfall amounts are likely to cause flash flooding and urban flooding, as well as new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in higher areas of northeast Mexico. For a complete display of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, see the National Weather Service's storm rainfall totals graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the flash flood risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the high tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising waters moving inland from the shore. Waters could reach the following heights above ground level anywhere in the indicated areas if the greatest tide occurs at the time of the high tide…

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX … 2-4 feet

Galveston Bay…2-4 feet

Mouth of Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX … 1-3 feet

Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA … 1-3 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and north of landfall, where the storm surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Flooding caused by storm surge depends on the relative timing of the storm surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your region, consult your local weather service products. For a complete representation of areas that could be inundated by storm surge, see the National Weather Service's Peak Storm Surge graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the disturbance crosses the coast, in areas with offshore winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the observation area through Wednesday.


The next warning from the National Hurricane Center will be issued at 10 p.m.

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